The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to respect the 50-day moving average on a closing basis. Bullish diverging hourly studies triggered a rebound off the European lows that eventually rejected at 50-hour moving average resistance. This potentially jeopardizes the near-term bullish structure and could signal a test of the 38.2% retracement level at the 78 handle. Meanwhile, clearing the key 50-hour moving average would increase the probability of confirming a higher low. .
The USD/CHF has garnered attention with the latest back-to-back bearish rejections at the psychological parity threshold. This pair is now favored to test the 100-day moving average while price-action remains above .9900 on a (daily) closing basis.
The EUR/USD’s recovery fell short of the key Fibonacci retracement at 1.3760, capping gains at the 200-hour moving average. The short-term double bottom recovery remains relatively firm, given its distance above the 100-hour moving average. Clearing 200-hour moving average resistance should trigger a test of the targeted 1.3760 level.
The GBP/USD rejected near the 50% retracement at 1.6068 on the back of bearish diverging hourly studies. The subsequent retreat managed to maintain support just above the 61.8% retracement near the end of European trade. A decisive loss of this Fibonacci level could put 50-day moving average support in jeopardy.
The AUD/USD has formed an inverse Head & Shoulders base with the latest dip. A clean upside break of neckline resistance in the .9900 region would be an attractive (long entry point).
