01/26 - Gold finds support at the 100-day MA

Gold broke below a 5-month trendline late last week and has since found temporary support at the rising 100-day MA and at 1086.59, a 50% extension target (the December bear correction projected from the January high). Bullish RSI divergence (4-hourly charts) suggests temporary stabilization that could retest the 1118.40 former pivot, where the 5-month (now internal) trendline lies. A close below 100-day MA support (now at 1088.34), however, points to a retest of the December 2009 low (1074.00).

01/21 - USD/CAD bulls seek a retest of the 20-week MA

Diverging daily & weekly studies (RSI & MACD) have supported the latest recovery off 1.0223, just above obvious support at 1.0203 (2009 low - 15 Oct). Clearing the falling 20-day MA on Wednesday has stabilized the outlook and could mark last week's low as the second point of a 3-month double bottom. In the meantime, bulls seek a retest of 1.0583 (30 Dec high), near the stubborn 20-week MA. As mentioned last week, the USD/CAD's 20-week MA has capped (on a closing basis) recovery attempts since late November 2009. Clearing it would expose the 1.0750/1.0754 pivot (17 Dec/27 Nov lows). A daily close below the rising 10-day MA (now at 1.0343), however, would threaten the recovery structure and could possibly reopen 1.0223/1.0247 (14/19 Jan lows).

01/19 - The DXY's 10-week MA reverts to support

The DXY's 10-week MA, which provided resistance for much of the move down to the 2009 low, has reverted to support (and has reverted to resistance for the EUR/USD). The EUR/USD's lack of weekly RSI divergence suggest a move to 1.40, the 50% retracement of bull market bounce off 1.2880. Only a weekly close above the falling 10-week MA (now at 1.4540) will shift the focus back towards 1.4680 (50% retracement of the 1.5142/1.4220 decline).

01/14 - USD/CAD now in double bottom territory

The USD/CAD's 20-week MA has steadily provided resistance since late 2009. The December 30th lower high rejected at the 20-day MA to signal the end of the consolidative recovery. This week's struggle at the 10-day MA has triggered further weakness that marks a fresh 3-month low. Diverging daily & weekly studies, however, support the possibility of a rebound near or just below obvious support in the 1.02 region (October 2009 low). The falling 10-day MA (now at 1.0361) will be the first obstacle in determining whether the USD/CAD can recover.

01/12 - USD/JPY key support

The Japanese Yen has enjoyed a comeback of sorts. Friday's rejection at the 200-day MA was led by diverging daily studies and the latest bout of risk aversion has pushed the USD/JPY down significantly. The next level of support to watch is 90.40, since it marks a 38.2% retracement and an equality target. A sustained close below targets the 88.27 level, where a daily Ichimoku cloud, the 61.8% retracement and a 1.618 Fibonacci target lie. Dips below these pivots (that demonstrate hourly bullish divergence) should be accumulated.

Big picture view of Treasury yields (2's & 10's)