The DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD and USD/CHF have formed wedges within their respective daily RSI oscillators. The latest trend of dollar weakness should continue while these formations remain intact. A substantial move above the EUR/USD's 10-week MA at 1.3804 would shift the immediate focus to 1.3853-1.4025, an Elliot wave target region (also near the 38.2 & 50% retracement of the downleg from the Jan 13th high). Above 1.4211, however, negates the current wave count and would suggest a medium-term trend shift. Meanwhile, while 4-hour bearish MACD divergence has triggered a correction off today's high, a substantial loss of 20-day MA support at 1.3635 (along with a breakdown of the aforementioned RSI wedge formations) is required to reignite dollar bulls.
