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Thursday, December 30, 2010

Daily DXY Roundup - 12/30


The US Dollar Index (DXY) finished modestly lower after paring losses on the back of firmer economic data. Price-action dipped below recent platform support at 79.58 before bullish diverging intra-day studies triggered a corrective recovery. The region between the December 14th swing low and the key 38.2% retracement (78.82/79.22) is the next downside target for dollar bears. Meanwhile, only a move above trendline resistance near 80.10 will shift focus back towards the resistant 130-day moving average.

The British Pound was the broad loser on the day following weak UK housing data. The Sterling exchange-rate index fell to a fresh 2-month low as the GBP/USD retreated back towards the lower end of its recent range and the GBP/CHF reached a new lifetime low. Oversold daily studies and thin trading conditions should allow for temporary consolidation as the immediate focus shifts to more UK housing data on Friday.

The Swiss Franc continues to be an outperformer, benefiting from its safe-haven status. The trade-weighted index finished up 0.66% following fresh all-time highs vs. the euro, dollar and pound. Further upside, however, should be hampered by thin holiday trade and oversold daily studies.

The USD/JPY managed to find a foothold at 81.36, the 76.4% retracement of the 80.23/84.51 advance on the back of bullish diverging hourly studies. Oversold daily conditions also contributed to the pairs bounce, forming a daily spinning top base. Dollar bulls will now need to reclaim the former swing low at 82.34 to avoid a re-test of November’s cyclical low at 80.23.