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Wednesday, April 7, 2010

04/07 - 5 REASONS EQUITIES SHOULD STALL/CORRECT



1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just confirmed a 2-day double top (Monday/Tuesday's highs) and negative diverging daily oscillators should continue to weigh. Losing 9-day MA support near 10900 suggests a broader correction is in play.

2. The VIX is pausing at a familiar level near the 16 handle and could potentially mark a double bottom base. Above the resistant 30-day MA confirms a base in volatility.

3. Treasury yields (which tend to reverse trends before stocks) have shown a failure at a key psychological level, namely the 10-year yield at 4.00%.

4. The 2010 sector leader (XLY) is losing leadership (to XLE) according to a relative strength comparison.

5. The US dollar has remained strong and it's inverse correlation should provide a headwind to equities. The EUR/USD has rejected at a key bear trendline & remains capped below the key 10-week MA.