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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

04/27 - Dow fails at key Fib


The Dow Jones Industrial Average has likely put in an intermediate top. Monday's failure at a key Fibonacci retracement at 11245 (61.8% of the 2007 high to the 2009 low) managed to form a doji candlestick, which indicates indecisiveness at an overbought juncture. The Dow now looks to have completed a 5 of a 5 (Elliot Wave), which suggests a pullback to the previous 4th wave base located just below 11,000. Also, volatility has picked up according to the VIX and the US Dollar Index remains strong. In the event that EUR/USD breaks solidily below a 3-month RSI uptrend, look for extended Dollar strength towards the 1.28 level (EUR/USD).