The S&P 500 nearly marked a key reversal day on the back of the false-break of 1150. Bearish divergence also hints of a reversal that will confirm with a daily close below the 14-day moving average. As mentioned in prior posts, the index has been trending in approximate 30-day intervals. It took roughly 30 days from the July base to the August peak, then 30 days back down to the 1040 triple bottom. The current 30-day cycle is near expiration, suggesting a pullback to the 1112/1127 region, a typical sized retracement. A deeper retreat suggests today's high could be an intermediate top and shifts the Elliot wave count lower. Meanwhile, the US Dollar looks to have temporarily bottomed and due to its strong inverse relationship, lends further credibility to the S&P's potential reversal. Keep in mind, that the DXY & EUR/USD would need to break 79.25 & 1.35 to break their current strong 5-week trends.
