The US Dollar Index continues to feel the pain, but relief may soon be in sight. According to the Daily Sentiment Index, the Dollar is at an extreme with only 5% of participants bullish. The Greenback’s oversold condition is evident against its major counterparts when looking at most daily indicators and is now approaching a net $20 billion short position among large speculators (CFTC). More importantly, risk aversion looks like it may be rearing its ugly head again, as seen in recent activity in credit-default swaps, the VIX and bond price-action. While this may not bode well for most traders, the “risk-off” trade tends to benefit the DXY. And with Japan’s recent commitment to weaken the Yen, the USD/JPY is expected to remain well-bid ahead of the 83 handle. Since intervening, the trade-weighted Yen has slowly grinded higher, doubling the amount of time it took to fall from recent highs. As such, a higher low for the USD/JPY is sought near the intersection of a key Fibonacci retracement and a former trendline at 83.50. Meanwhile, the big picture downtrend remains firmly intact while trading below 85.87, the 25% retracement of the entire move off the 2010 high.
STRATEGY: BUY USD/JPY at 83.50, risking 82.70, targeting 85.15
